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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Engineering Kanban |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When work sits in too many parallel streams, throughput suffers and no one sees the bottlenecks. Kanban makes the flow of work visible and limits overload so a system becomes calmer and more predictable. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | Ongoing |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 4-10 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Kanban board, WIP policies, Flow metrics |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | FlowVisual managementDelivery |