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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Hypothesis Prioritization Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When many hypotheses compete for attention, it brings order to their learning sequence and importance. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritization canvas and a hypothesis backlog. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 20-35 min | 60-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-5 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Prioritization Canvas, Hypothesis Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsPrioritizationDiscoveryHypothesis |