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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |