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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Delivery Cost of Delay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | Half day | 90-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision |