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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Hypothesis Prioritization Canvas |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When many hypotheses compete for attention, it brings order to their learning sequence and importance. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritization canvas and a hypothesis backlog. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 60-90 min | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Prioritization Canvas, Hypothesis Backlog | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsPrioritizationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |