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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Hypothesis Prioritization Canvas |  Delivery Cost of Delay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When many hypotheses compete for attention, it brings order to their learning sequence and importance. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritization canvas and a hypothesis backlog. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 60-90 min | 90-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Prioritization Canvas, Hypothesis Backlog | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsPrioritizationDiscoveryHypothesis | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision |