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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |  Product Discovery MVP Test Matrix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. | When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 45-75 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision | Test Matrix, Test Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions |