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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments |
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