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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile Bucket System |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | EstimationExpertsForecasting |