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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale | ChangeDecisionStrategy |