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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-90 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | DecisionTreeOptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |