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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 60-180 min | 1-3 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-20 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | RationaleKnowledgeDecision | SensemakingDecisionRationale |