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Criterion
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighHighLow
Timedifferent
30-90 min Setup, danach laufend2-6 h2-6 h15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
1-83-83-102-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective ActionsRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingFlowDelivery
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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