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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Cost of Delay |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 90-180 min | Half day | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |