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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Cost of Delay |  Product Discovery Hypothesis Prioritization Canvas |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. | When many hypotheses compete for attention, it brings order to their learning sequence and importance. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritization canvas and a hypothesis backlog. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 90-180 min | 60-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence | Prioritization Canvas, Hypothesis Backlog | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision | ExperimentsPrioritizationDiscoveryHypothesis | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |