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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Knowledge Modeling Concept Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Concept Mapping arranges terms and relationships in a network that makes subject-matter connections tangible. It fits when a topic needs to be understood structurally rather than linearly. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-2 h | 1-4 Wochen | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Concept Map, Relationship Labels, Knowledge Gaps | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | KnowledgeConceptsMappingSensemaking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |