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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Knowledge Modeling Concept Mapping |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Concept Mapping arranges terms and relationships in a network that makes subject-matter connections tangible. It fits when a topic needs to be understood structurally rather than linearly. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-2 h | 60-180 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-20 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Concept Map, Relationship Labels, Knowledge Gaps | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | KnowledgeConceptsMappingSensemaking | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |