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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-6 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |