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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-6 h | 45-90 min | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 2-5 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |