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Criterion
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLowLow
Timedifferent
30-90 min Setup, danach laufendHalf day1-2 h45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
1-83-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationStress Test Report, Action Plan per ScenarioDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning reportAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingFlowDelivery
StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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