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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  DevOps Blameless Postmortem |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | After an incident with damage or a near miss, the method creates a sober field for learning without assigning blame. It directs attention to the course of events, conditions, and effective countermeasures. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-90 min | 2-6 h | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Postmortem Doc, Action Items, Timeline | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Site Reliability EngineeringIncidentLearningReliability | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |