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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Agile NoEstimates |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-4 h | laufend | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | 2-12 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Root causeSafetyIncident | EstimationForecastingFlow | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |