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Criterion
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration of Family Tree Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Family Tree Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Purposedifferent
Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMediumHigh
Timedifferent
30-90 min Setup, danach laufend2-4 h2-4 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-62-63-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action BacklogFamily Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic MeasuresFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingFlowDelivery
Root causeSafetyIncident
Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic
RiskRoot causeSafety
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