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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-4 h | 2-6 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | 3-8 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Root causeSafetyIncident | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |