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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations MORT Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-4 h | 2-6 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Root causeSafetyIncident | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident |