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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making OODA Loop |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | 15-60 min je Zyklus | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |