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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Learning Card |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | 25-40 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-5 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Learning Card with evidence and next action | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |