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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | 1-5 Tage | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |