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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Learning Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | 45-60 min | 25-40 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Learning Card with evidence and next action |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning |