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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-60 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |