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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Learning Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-60 min | 45-90 min | 25-40 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Learning Card with evidence and next action |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning |