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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Knowledge Modeling Concept Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | Concept Mapping arranges terms and relationships in a network that makes subject-matter connections tangible. It fits when a topic needs to be understood structurally rather than linearly. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 1-2 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Concept Map, Relationship Labels, Knowledge Gaps | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | SensemakingDecisionRationale | KnowledgeConceptsMappingSensemaking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |