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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Growth A/B Testing |  Agile NoEstimates |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | laufend | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-12 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | EstimationForecastingFlow | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |