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Criterion
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
Paper illustration for Root Cause Analysis.
Operations
Root Cause Analysis
Purposedifferent
Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible.When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
30-90 min Setup, danach laufend15-30 min1-3 h1-4 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-64-103-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresCurrent-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck listProblem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingFlowDelivery
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
LeanFlowWasteDelivery
Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident
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