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| Criterion |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | LeanStartupValidationMVP | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk |