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| Criterion |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-3 h | 60-120 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-6 | 4-10 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForecastingFlowDelivery |