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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-5 Tage | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |