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| Criterion |  Agile Ideal Days |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-60 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate |
Participantsdifferent | 2-9 | 1-8 | 2-8 | 4-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortAgile | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AgileDiscoveryDelivery |