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Criterion
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
15-60 min1-3 h20–45 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-93-8Small cross-functional group2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity CaveatsFailure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortAgile
FailureResilienceRisk
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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