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| Criterion |  Agile Ideal Days |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-60 min | 5-20 min | 45-90 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-9 | 3-20 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortAgile | EstimationEffortRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |