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| Criterion |  Agile Ideal Days |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-60 min | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-9 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortAgile | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk |