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Criterion
How Might We
Innovation
How Might We
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Purposedifferent
With a stuck problem carrying many implicit assumptions, the method translates observations into open, workable questions. It sharpens the problem frame without pre-thinking the solution, turning frustration or fuzziness into a search space with clear direction.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
30–45 min20–45 min45-90 min1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
1-10Small cross-functional group2-83-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
HMW Questions, Challenge Framing, Idea PromptsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFailure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions
Tagsno overlap
FramingOpportunityIdeationQuestions
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
FailureResilienceRisk
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