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Criterion
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
Halber Tag1-3 h45-60 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
5-203-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Simulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksFailure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
ResilienceOperationsIncident
FailureResilienceRisk
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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