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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 15-45 min | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-10 | 1-8 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk |