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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-10 | 1-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |