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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Agile Ideal Days |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 15-60 min | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-10 | 2-9 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationEffortAgile | EstimationEffortRisk |