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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 2-6 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-10 | 3-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics |