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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 10-30 min je Item | 5-20 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 3-20 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow |