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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 0.5-3 Tage | 5-20 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 5-15 | 3-20 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | EstimationEffortRisk | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |