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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Shape Up |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down | 30-60 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-4 pro Pitch | 2-10 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomes | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | PlanningDeliveryAutonomy | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |